Negative factor is out of the fear of nuclear leakage and insufficient power supply, consumers and investors confidence has been clobbered. Japan Center for Economic Research reported that the power shortage will affect the economic development over the next three years. Tokyo Megalopolis power supply decreased by 10% this year, Japan’s GDP will decline by 2 percent.
Disaster Cabinet Office claimed that the reconstruction needs and price increases will be relatively fast economic recovery. But I believe that this view may be overly optimistic, because the government may increase taxes to fill the new items of expenditure. In addition, in the first quarter GDP growth are withering could mean disaster on the economic impact far beyond the expected!

The Japanese economy is expected to continue to experience year on year decline of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, until September 7 in order to restore growth. But as opposed to the Government’s forecast of economic recovery start-up time will be postponed to the end of the medium-term annual growth rate is maintained at between 1.5% to 2%.

Another problem is the impact of the disaster on the global supply chain. According to a survey conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Economy in the disaster, one month after the outbreak, the affected areas over 60% of the production sites to resume operation on April 15. 30% is expected to return to work this summer, while the remaining 10% is expected to resume production in the autumn.

But even a small part of the supply chain is damaged, the impact could be extremely serious – located in the industrial chain in the Asia-Pacific region is particularly serious. Japan’s Renesas Electronics, for example, annual sales of 150,000 million yen medium-sized enterprises responsible to provide an essential microcomputer components for the automotive supply accounted for more than half of the world. The enterprise affected, the Toyota early May, capacity utilization decreased by more than 50%.

The same, and Kureha this annual sales of 130,000 million yen chemical enterprises responsible for the supply 70 percent of the world’s lithium viscous material – lithium battery may be small, but it is an integral parts of mobile phone. Finland’s Nokia has 12% of the lithium battery needs to be imported from Japan, and therefore subject to the indirect effects of the earthquake and tsunami disaster.
Therefore, more Japanese companies are working to develop and implement sustainable business plan. In fact, such a scheme will be the key issues affected the regional economy. Continuing operations plan to determine the re-integration of the other alternative suppliers means that the regional economy will be a new situation, companies and even to establish cooperative relations and their competitors.
Unfortunately, Japan’s bureaucrats, it seems to lack a similar flexibility. The large-scale disaster in fact confirmed a point: Japan is a very dynamic private sector and stagnant public sector and the combination of the central government. Government in the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in the so-called “crisis communication”, the mistakes and slow performance when rescue victims have repeatedly confirmed the old view.

However, in international relations, this disaster will be to improve the bilateral relations between Japan and neighboring countries. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in the nearby region of Fukushima and when he was Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan met – also help to alleviate the concerns of neighboring countries on the nuclear leakage.

In addition, since two years ago, the Democratic Party of Japan came to power after the Japan-US relations into the trough seems to be in the post-disaster consolidation. Japan Self-Defense Forces have played an important role in post-disaster rescue and repair, half of all 20 million troops sent into the disaster. And this seriously weakened Japan’s defense capability, but the United States specifically sent an aircraft carrier and cruiser to maintain the security situation in East Asia, while the U.S. military and the Self-Defense Forces a search for the disaster of missing persons.

The neighboring countries are Japan as soon as possible to achieve the reconstruction and economic normalization, which means that we need a strong political leadership. Earthquake and tsunami has undoubtedly suffered a deep crisis – but also provides an excellent opportunity to enable them to implement long-delayed comprehensive reform.

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